Trying to figure out which states have the highest “outbound” migration can be confusing, mainly because the term is used differently across various rankings. Some lists measure total population loss, while others track the percentage of movers heading out versus coming in, and still others examine domestic migration separately from international arrivals. Below you’ll find the states experiencing the highest outbound migration right now, how those patterns compare across different data sources, and the common reasons driving people to leave.
Key Points (2025)
- Top outbound states by volume: New York lost the most residents from 2020 to 2024 with 446,814 people leaving, followed by California with 530,886 net outbound, and Illinois with 139,399 departures, representing the largest absolute population losses in the nation.
- Highest outbound percentages: Alaska leads with 57 percent of moves being outbound, followed by Kentucky at 56 percent, New Mexico at 56 percent, and Virginia at 55 percent, indicating more people leaving than arriving relative to total moves.
- Primary migration corridors: California to Texas remains the largest interstate migration route with over 102,000 people making this move annually, while New York to Florida follows with 91,000 movers, and New Jersey to Florida shows 47,000 relocations.
- Why people leave: High housing costs drive most exits from California, New York, and New Jersey, while high taxes motivate Illinois departures. Job relocation, proximity to family, and retirement push migration to lower-cost southern states where affordability and quality of life improvements attract former residents of expensive coastal markets.
States Losing the Most People (Total Volume)
When measuring outbound migration by total number of people who left, several large states dominate the rankings simply because their populations are so substantial that even modest percentage losses translate into hundreds of thousands of residents relocating elsewhere. These absolute numbers reveal which states face the most significant demographic challenges in terms of sheer volume of departures.
| Rank | State | Net Loss (2020–2024) |
Key Reasons |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York | -446,814 | New York leads the nation in total population loss with the steepest numeric drop. High housing costs in New York City and surrounding suburbs, combined with elevated state and local taxes, drive departures primarily to Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. The Empire State shows over 2,000 more people eyeing exits than entrances in recent data, nearly 50 percent more outbound interest than inbound. |
| 2 | California | -530,886 | California experienced the second-largest population drop, losing approximately 75,000 residents in 2023 alone during its third consecutive year of decline. The number one reason people leave is cost, with California ranking as the nation’s second most expensive state behind Hawaii. Housing expenses often exceed national averages by double, while the state carries the nation’s highest income tax rate at 12.3 percent. Slow job growth and 441 businesses relocating headquarters since 2018 compound the challenge. |
| 3 | Illinois | -139,399 | Illinois continues shedding population at a pace that raises red flags, with over 56,000 residents leaving in just the past year and hundreds of thousands gone over recent years. When taxes are included as a survey option, high taxes emerge as the number one reason Illinoisans consider leaving. A 2016 poll found 47 percent wanted to leave primarily due to taxes, while 2019 polling showed 61 percent had thought about moving out of state with taxes as the top driver. |
| 4 | Louisiana | -70,376 | Louisiana lost about 70,000 residents from 2020 to 2024, marking its third consecutive year of population decline. This pattern is particularly notable because most neighboring states like Texas, Mississippi, and Arkansas gained population during the same period. Safety concerns with the nation’s highest murder rate, combined with hurricane exposure and economic challenges, drive departures despite the state’s cultural richness. |
| 5 | Hawaii | -20,019 | Hawaii shows significant outbound migration relative to its small population, with housing costs reaching a median of $973,555 making homeownership virtually impossible for most residents. The combination of extreme housing expenses, high cost of living, and geographic isolation from the mainland drives younger residents and families to leave despite the islands’ natural beauty and cultural appeal. |
| 6 | Pennsylvania | Loss of ~10,400 in 2023 | Pennsylvania rounds out the top states losing population with a decline of 10,408 people in 2023, continuing a concerning trend. The state’s population was essentially flat or declining through the late 2010s and saw losses accelerate during the pandemic. Demographic stagnation combines with outmigration to create long-term challenges. |
| 7 | Alaska | -8,388 | Alaska leads all states with 57 percent outbound moves, though the total volume remains smaller due to limited population. Harsh climate, geographic isolation, high cost of living despite no state income tax, and limited economic opportunities beyond oil, tourism, and government push residents to warmer, more connected states. |
| 8 | West Virginia | Consistent annual losses | West Virginia stands as the only state to have consistently lost population every year since 2013. In 2025, the state expects to lose another 8,000 to 10,000 residents with no clear reversal in sight. Limited economic opportunities, aging population, and youth departing for education and jobs create a persistent decline. Interestingly, United Van Lines shows West Virginia with 66 percent inbound moves, suggesting retirees and remote workers moving in while younger residents leave. |
Sources: Wikipedia List of U.S. States by Net Migration 2020-2024; North American Community Hub population data; Three Movers U.S. Census analysis; Consumer Affairs migration study 2025.
Major Migration Corridors (Where They’re Going)
Understanding where people go when they leave high-outbound states reveals clear patterns in American migration, with specific state-to-state corridors carrying tens of thousands of movers annually. These migration routes reflect broader trends in affordability, climate preferences, job opportunities, and lifestyle desires that shape where Americans choose to live.
The California to Texas corridor stands as the largest interstate migration route in the entire country, with over 102,000 people making this move in a single year according to U.S. Census data. Californians head to Texas seeking dramatically lower housing costs, no state income tax versus California’s 12.3 percent top rate, growing job markets in Austin, Dallas, and Houston, and the ability to afford larger homes with yard space that’s increasingly unattainable in California metros. The same factors drive 51,000 annual moves from California to Florida and significant flows to Nevada, Arizona, and Oregon.
New York to Florida represents another high-volume corridor with more than 91,000 movers following this route annually. Retirees seeking warm weather and no state income tax have long favored this move, but increasingly younger professionals and families relocate to escape New York’s housing costs and taxes while maintaining career opportunities through remote work or growing Florida job markets. The New York to Florida pipeline continues despite recent reports that Florida’s own rising costs and insurance challenges have begun to slow its previously torrid growth.
New Jersey to Florida brings 47,000 annual movers, while Illinois to Florida accounts for 39,000 relocations. Both states feature residents fleeing high property taxes, cold winters, and elevated costs of living for Florida’s warmth, affordability advantages, and tax benefits. However, analysis suggests Florida’s net domestic migration fell by more than 49 percent from 2022 to 2023, indicating that the Sunshine State’s affordability advantage may be eroding as housing costs rise and insurance premiums surge following hurricane exposure.
Northeastern states to North Carolina and South Carolina represent growing corridors as these states offer milder winters than the Northeast, significantly lower costs than California or New York, strong job growth in research triangle and Charlotte areas, and quality of life improvements without the extreme heat or hurricane exposure of deeper southern states. North Carolina gained 82,000 net residents while South Carolina added 68,000, making them top destinations alongside Texas and Florida.
Smaller but notable flows include Illinois to Texas, New York to Pennsylvania, and California to Oregon and Washington, though the Pacific Northwest’s own rising costs have begun reversing some of these inbound patterns as Oregon and Washington face their own affordability challenges.
Why People Leave (Primary Motivations)
While specific reasons vary by individual circumstance, clear patterns emerge in what drives Americans to leave certain states for others. Understanding these motivations helps explain both the outbound states struggling with departures and the inbound destinations successfully attracting new residents.
- Housing Costs and AffordabilityHousing costs and affordability emerge as the single most important factor driving interstate migration. California residents cite cost as the number one reason for leaving, with median home prices of $809,227. New York and Hawaii also face extreme challenges (Hawaii median price: $973,555). These extreme costs force residents to choose between financial security and remaining in their home states.
- High TaxesHigh taxes drive departures from specific states. Illinois polling shows high taxes become the number one reason residents consider leaving (61 percent). New Jersey’s property tax rate of 2.46 percent (highest in the nation) adds over $10,000 annually to housing costs. California’s 12.3 percent top income tax rate motivates higher earners to relocate to no-income-tax states like Texas and Florida.
- Job Opportunities and Economic ConditionsJob opportunities and economic conditions play a significant role, particularly for younger residents. California’s slow job growth rate and the relocation of 441 businesses since 2018 raise concerns. West Virginia’s consistent population loss since 2013 reflects limited economic opportunities that push young people to leave for careers elsewhere.
- Proximity to FamilyProximity to family emerges as a major motivation for those who do move, with United Van Lines reporting 24 percent of Oregon movers citing family proximity as a key reason. The pandemic reminded many Americans of the value of living near extended family, especially as remote work made geographic flexibility possible.
- Retirement and LifestyleRetirement and lifestyle continue driving significant migration, particularly the traditional move from cold northern states to warmer southern destinations (Florida, Arizona, the Carolinas). Younger professionals increasingly make similar moves for lifestyle improvements including more space, better value, and access to outdoor activities.
- Safety ConcernsSafety concerns factor into some departures, though less prominently than costs and taxes. Louisiana’s status as the most unsafe state with the nation’s highest murder rate at 14.4 per 100,000 residents drives some families to relocate. New Mexico’s violent crime rate of 780 per 100,000 similarly motivates departures.
- Political and Regulatory EnvironmentPolitical and regulatory environment appears as a secondary factor for some movers. California businesses cite red tape and regulatory burdens as reasons for relocating, while residents in some states express frustration with governance that doesn’t address their priorities effectively.
Overall Mobility Trends (Americans Moving Less)
An important context for understanding outbound migration is that Americans overall are moving less frequently than in previous decades. United Van Lines reports that more Americans are choosing to stay put rather than uproot themselves and their families, with move volumes decreasing eight percent in 2024 compared to 2023. This represents a continuation of a long-term trend toward lower geographic mobility in the United States.
The reasons Americans are moving less include elevated mortgage rates that lock homeowners into low rates they secured before the Federal Reserve’s rate increases, making selling and buying financially painful. Home prices that rose dramatically during the pandemic created substantial equity for existing owners but made new purchases unaffordable, trapping people in place. Economic uncertainty and inflation concerns make the substantial costs and risks of relocating seem less appealing when staying put offers stability. Remote work, while enabling some to move to lower-cost areas, also allows others to remain in expensive areas they might otherwise have left by eliminating painful commutes or providing income to afford staying.
Looking forward to 2025, analysis suggests mobility rates may rebound as inflation eases and interest rates begin declining. The financial barriers that kept many Americans rooted in place may start to lift as economic conditions improve, potentially driving a gradual rise in moves. This rebound would benefit moving companies but also accelerate the outbound trends from expensive states as pent-up demand to relocate finally gets realized.
Despite overall lower mobility, the states losing population face structural challenges rather than temporary hesitation. California, New York, and Illinois have lost residents for multiple consecutive years, indicating persistent problems rather than one-time shocks. These states must address underlying cost, tax, and opportunity challenges to reverse outbound trends, since economic improvement alone may actually accelerate departures by making moves financially feasible for those who’ve wanted to leave but couldn’t afford it.
Where People Are Moving To (Inbound)
| State | Outbound % | Primary Destinations | Why They’re Leaving |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | 57% | Washington, Texas, California | Alaska tops the outbound percentage list with harsh winters, extreme geographic isolation, high cost of living despite no income tax, limited economic diversity beyond oil and tourism, and the challenges of raising families far from extended support networks. The perpetual darkness of winter and lack of amenities found in lower 48 states push residents toward more temperate, connected locations. |
| Kentucky | 56% | Tennessee, Florida, Indiana | Kentucky shows 56 percent outbound moves with residents seeking better economic opportunities, lower taxes, and more vibrant job markets in neighboring states. Tennessee’s lack of state income tax particularly attracts Kentuckians looking to stretch their dollars further while staying in the region. |
| New Mexico | 56% | Texas, Arizona, Colorado | New Mexico experiences high outbound migration driven by limited economic opportunities, safety concerns with the nation’s highest violent crime rate at 780 per 100,000 residents, and education challenges. Despite natural beauty and cultural richness, families often relocate to neighboring states offering better schools, jobs, and security. |
| Virginia | 55% | North Carolina, Tennessee, Florida | Virginia shows 55 percent outbound moves despite strong employment opportunities in the Washington D.C. metro area. High housing costs in Northern Virginia, combined with property taxes and cost of living, push residents to nearby North Carolina and Tennessee where they can find similar opportunities at lower costs. |
| California | High outbound | Texas, Nevada, Arizona, Oregon | California leads in absolute numbers with a net loss of 7,300 residents seeking to leave according to Consumer Affairs. The California to Texas corridor alone accounts for over 102,000 annual moves, the largest interstate migration route in America. High costs drive most exits, with housing often double the national average and the nation’s highest income tax at 12.3 percent. |
| New Jersey | High outbound | Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina | New Jersey faces over 35,000 people leaving in just the past year, making it one of the top states for outbound migration again. The nation’s highest property tax rate at 2.46 percent combines with high housing costs and elevated income taxes to drive departures despite proximity to New York City and Philadelphia, world-class schools, and a diversified economy. |
| Massachusetts | Moderate outbound | Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina | Massachusetts sees about 590 more people looking to leave than arrive, with high housing costs in the Boston metro area driving departures despite excellent healthcare, education, and quality of life. Median home prices of $685,886 and high property taxes push residents to more affordable states while maintaining quality services. |
| Washington | Moderate outbound | Idaho, Montana, Texas, Arizona | Despite jaw-dropping natural beauty from Mount Rainier to Puget Sound, Washington’s high cost of living, rising taxes, and ongoing urban challenges in Seattle nudge more people out in 2025. The beauty remains, but many residents conclude it’s not worth the financial strain anymore, particularly with property crime challenges in major cities. |
Understanding outbound migration makes more sense when you know where all these people are going. The inbound states attracting the most new residents reveal what Americans value when they choose to relocate, providing a mirror image to the challenges facing high-outbound states.
Domestic Migration Trends: The Great State-to-State Shift
Examining net domestic migration reveals which states successfully attract Americans relocating from other parts of the country, highlighting economic and lifestyle factors that drive major population shifts.
- Texas Leads in Gains: +85,000 Net ResidentsTexas leads all states with over 85,000 net domestic migration gains in a single year, driven by no state income tax, abundant and relatively affordable housing compared to coastal markets, diverse and growing job markets across energy, technology, healthcare, and manufacturing, and major metros including Austin, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio that offer urban amenities without coastal price tags. Texas benefits enormously from the California exodus, capturing over 102,000 annual Californians alone.
- Florida’s Moderation: +64,000 Net ResidentsFlorida ranks high despite recent moderation, adding 64,000 net residents in recent years though down significantly from peak pandemic-era gains. No state income tax, warm weather year-round, beaches and outdoor recreation, and growing job markets continue attracting residents. However, rising insurance costs following hurricane exposure and housing prices that increased faster than wages have begun to slow Florida’s dominance, with net domestic migration falling 49 percent from 2022 to 2023.
- The Carolinas Surge: North Carolina +82,000, South Carolina +68,000North Carolina surged to attract 82,000 net new residents, with the Research Triangle offering technology and healthcare jobs, Charlotte providing financial services employment, and areas like Wilmington and Myrtle Beach drawing retirees. North Carolina balances affordability with quality of life. South Carolina follows closely with 68,000 net gains and 62 percent inbound moves, offering coastal beauty, affordable housing, and no state tax on Social Security benefits for retirees.
- Tennessee’s Affordability AdvantageTennessee gained 325,319 net residents from 2020 to 2024, driven by no state income tax, Nashville’s booming industries, and smaller-city appeal. Tennessee recently **overtook Florida** for third rank among the most popular states to move to, suggesting its affordability advantages exceed even Florida’s as the latter’s costs rise.
- Western Inbound States and Affordability ChallengesSmaller but notable inbound states include Arizona, Idaho, Montana, Utah, and Nevada. However, Idaho and Montana both saw over 56 percent home price increases since 2020, transforming them from affordable destinations into expensive markets themselves as Californians and Washingtonians brought higher purchasing power.
- West Virginia’s Unique InflowInterestingly, West Virginia topped United Van Lines’ 2024 study with 66 percent inbound moves, suggesting that remote workers and retirees find value in the state’s extremely low housing costs and outdoor recreation, even as younger residents continue leaving for economic opportunities elsewhere.
The International Immigration Factor
An important nuance in population change involves distinguishing between domestic migration, where Americans move from state to state, and international immigration, where foreign nationals arrive in the United States. Several states losing domestic residents actually show population growth when international arrivals are included, masking the extent of outbound domestic migration.
- Illinois: International migrants boost the state’s population despite substantial domestic outflows. International arrivals don’t erase the underlying problems driving domestic residents to leave, primarily high taxes.
- California: International immigration partially offsets domestic losses, driven by the tech industry and universities. However, California also loses international immigrants through secondary migration as they relocate to more affordable states.
- New York: Attracts substantial international immigration to New York City. Yet New York’s overall population decline even with international arrivals indicates the scale of domestic exodus overwhelming these gains.
The international immigration factor means that some states’ population statistics understate their domestic migration challenges. Policy discussions focused solely on total population growth or loss miss the critical distinction between attracting or retaining American residents versus relying on international arrivals to offset domestic departures. States losing domestic residents face economic and policy challenges that population statistics blending domestic and international movements can obscure.
Methodology & Definitions for Migration Rankings
Different migration rankings measure fundamentally different aspects of population movement, which explains why state rankings can vary depending on which data source and methodology you examine. Understanding these distinctions helps you interpret what each ranking actually reveals about where people are moving and why:
- Net migration: the difference between people moving into a state and people moving out, expressed either as a raw number showing total population change or as a rate per 1,000 residents. Negative numbers indicate more people left than arrived, while positive numbers show net gains. This captures the overall population shift but doesn’t distinguish between domestic and international migration.
- Domestic migration: movement between states by people already living in the United States, excluding international immigration. This measure reveals whether states are successfully retaining and attracting American residents, which reflects resident satisfaction and economic opportunity more directly than total population change.
- Outbound percentage: the percentage of all moves involving a state that represent people leaving rather than arriving. States are classified as “high outbound” when 55 percent or more of moves are outbound, “high inbound” when 55 percent or more are inbound, or “balanced” when the split is roughly even. This percentage approach reveals relative desirability regardless of state size.
- Move volume: the total number of households or individuals who moved, either into or out of a state, regardless of net effect. High move volumes can occur in both growing and shrinking states if turnover is substantial.
- Migration corridors: specific state-to-state routes that carry high volumes of movers, such as California to Texas or New York to Florida. These corridors reveal destination preferences among residents leaving particular states.
- Reasons for moving: self-reported motivations including job relocation, proximity to family, retirement, cost of living, taxes, climate, and lifestyle preferences. Survey questions and allowed responses significantly impact which reasons appear most prominent.
A 90-Second Migration Trend Analysis
- Check both volume and percentage rankings to understand whether a state is losing people in absolute terms, relative to its moves, or both, since large states naturally show higher absolute losses even with moderate outbound percentages.
- Look at multi-year trends rather than single-year snapshots to distinguish temporary fluctuations from persistent patterns. California, New York, and Illinois have lost population for three or more consecutive years, indicating structural challenges rather than one-time events.
- Distinguish domestic migration from international immigration when evaluating whether states successfully retain residents or merely replace domestic departures with foreign arrivals who may eventually leave for the same reasons.
- Research specific destination states that attract people from your current state, since migration corridors reveal where people with similar backgrounds and concerns find better conditions worth the disruption of moving.
- Identify primary reasons for leaving your current state or arriving in potential destinations by examining surveys and studies that break down motivations. If high costs drive departures from your current state, ensure destination states truly offer meaningful savings rather than just slightly lower costs that may not justify moving expenses.
Regional Migration Patterns
Migration patterns cluster geographically in ways that reveal broader regional trends in American population movement. Here’s how outbound and inbound migration typically looks across different regions:
Northeast
The Northeast faces substantial outbound migration with New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts all showing significant net losses. High housing costs in metros like New York City and Boston, combined with elevated property and income taxes, cold winters, and aging infrastructure push residents toward southern and western states. Over 50 percent of movers from the Northeast relocated to the South where living costs are more manageable and winters milder. However, some smaller Northeast states like Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont show net inbound migration as remote workers and retirees discover their affordability relative to major Northeast metros combined with quality of life advantages.
South
The South dominates inbound migration, accounting for 87 percent of U.S. population growth in 2023. Texas, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, and Alabama all show strong net gains driven by lower housing costs, no state income tax in Texas, Florida, and Tennessee, growing job markets across technology, healthcare, logistics, and manufacturing, and milder winters than northern states. However, Louisiana bucks this trend with significant outbound migration driven by safety concerns, hurricane exposure, and economic challenges. Florida’s inbound growth moderated significantly as rising costs and insurance challenges made it less affordable than before.
Midwest
Midwestern states show mixed patterns with Illinois experiencing substantial outbound migration driven primarily by high taxes, while others like Wisconsin, Iowa, and Indiana show modest gains or balanced migration. The Midwest offers affordability and quality of life advantages but faces perceptions of harsh winters, limited economic growth compared to Sun Belt states, and population loss in rust belt cities. However, remote work has enabled some Midwest cities to attract residents from expensive coastal markets who discover affordable housing, short commutes, and good schools without sacrificing incomes.
West
The West shows the starkest division between high-cost coastal states losing population and interior states gaining residents. California leads all states in domestic outmigration with the California to Texas corridor as the nation’s largest migration route. Washington and Oregon also face outbound pressure as costs rise and urban challenges persist. However, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Nevada, and Arizona attract substantial inbound migration, though Idaho and Montana’s rapid price increases since 2020 threaten their affordability advantages. Alaska stands as an outlier with the highest outbound percentage due to harsh climate, isolation, and economic limitations.
Corporate Relocations & Economic Impact
Beyond individual and family migration, corporate relocations significantly impact state population trends by taking jobs and often employees with them. The movement of company headquarters and offices from high-cost to low-cost states accelerates outbound migration from expensive states while boosting inbound migration to business-friendly destinations.
California has seen 441 businesses relocate their headquarters to other states since 2018, a stunning exodus driven by high rent, high taxes, elevated costs for employees, and regulatory red tape that makes operating expensive and complex. Oracle, HP Enterprise, and other notable tech companies moved to Texas, taking thousands of jobs and often employees who either relocated with the company or lost positions when they couldn’t or wouldn’t move. These corporate moves create multiplier effects as employees relocate, new workers get hired in destination states, and suppliers and partners follow major employers.
Texas leads corporate relocation destinations, followed by Florida, Tennessee, and North Carolina, all offering business-friendly environments with lower taxes, less regulation, and often right-to-work laws that employers prefer. The corporate migration boom has cooled slightly since its 2021 to 2023 peak, but the direction remains the same with business-friendly states continuing to attract headquarters and branch offices.
Illinois faces similar corporate departure challenges, with businesses citing taxes and regulations as reasons for relocating operations. New York and New Jersey experience steady corporate outmigration as firms seek lower operating costs while maintaining access to talent, now more feasible through remote work that lets companies hire from anywhere while being headquartered in low-cost states.
The economic impact extends beyond the immediate job losses. When headquarters depart, states lose tax revenue from both corporate taxes and personal income taxes from highly-paid executives. Commercial real estate suffers as office buildings empty. Suppliers, professional services, and restaurants that served corporate campuses lose business. The state’s reputation as a business location suffers, making it harder to attract new companies or retain existing ones. This creates a potential downward spiral where outbound migration reduces the tax base, forcing tax increases or service cuts that drive more departures.
How Outbound Migration Affects Housing Markets
Sustained outbound migration significantly impacts housing markets in ways that create both challenges and opportunities depending on your position. States losing population generally see housing demand soften, which can moderate price growth or even drive declines in extreme cases. California’s housing market showed signs of cooling in 2023 with price growth stalling in some metros as outbound migration reduced the pool of buyers competing for homes. New York and Illinois similarly face housing market challenges in areas losing population, particularly in smaller cities and rural counties where departures of younger residents leave behind older homeowners with fewer buyers when they eventually sell.
However, housing markets in outbound states are complex because they often started from positions of extreme unaffordability. California home prices remain extraordinarily high at $809,227 median despite population losses, because housing supply remains extremely constrained and high-income residents who stay can still afford current prices. New York City real estate proves resilient due to international buyers, wealthy Americans who can afford the costs, and the city’s unique global appeal despite domestic outmigration from the broader state.
In receiving states, inbound migration drives strong housing demand that can overwhelm supply and drive rapid price appreciation. Idaho and Montana both experienced over 56 percent home price increases since 2020, transforming affordable markets into expensive ones as Californians and Washingtonians brought higher incomes and purchasing power. Florida’s housing market surged during pandemic-era migration, though recent moderation suggests the market is cooling as affordability erodes.
The rental market shows similar patterns, with outbound states generally seeing more moderate rent growth or even declining rents in areas losing substantial population, while inbound states face rapid rent increases that price out lower-income residents. This creates affordability challenges even in states known for low costs, as rapid migration drives housing expenses higher faster than local wages increase.
For individuals considering moves, these housing market dynamics matter enormously. Selling in an outbound state with softening demand may yield less than expected, while buying in a hot inbound market may cost more than anticipated. Timing matters, as early movers to popular destinations captured affordability advantages that later arrivals no longer enjoy. Understanding where markets are in their migration-driven cycles helps inform whether to move now, wait for conditions to change, or reconsider destinations whose advantages may have already been competed away.
Data Glossary
- Net migration: the difference between people entering and leaving a state, expressed as either a raw number of residents or a rate per 1,000 population. Negative net migration means more people left than arrived, indicating population loss from migration.
- Domestic migration: movement between states by existing U.S. residents, excluding international immigration. This measure reveals whether states successfully retain and attract Americans rather than merely replacing domestic departures with foreign arrivals.
- Outbound percentage: the share of all moves involving a state that represent people leaving rather than arriving. Percentages above 55 percent indicate “high outbound” states where departures significantly exceed arrivals relative to total move volume.
- Migration corridor: a specific state-to-state route carrying high volumes of movers, such as California to Texas with 102,000 annual moves. Corridors reveal destination preferences among residents leaving particular states.
- Natural increase: births minus deaths, which affects total population change separately from migration. Some states lose population despite positive net migration because deaths exceed births, while others gain population despite outmigration due to high birth rates.
- Per capita migration rate: net migration expressed per 1,000 residents, which reveals relative migration impact regardless of state size. Idaho’s rate of 77.42 per 1,000 shows greater proportional growth than Texas’s 53.81 despite Texas gaining more absolute residents.
Planning Checklist for Understanding Migration
Current State Analysis (30 minutes)
- Research your current state’s migration trends over the past three to five years, distinguishing between temporary pandemic effects and persistent patterns that indicate structural challenges.
- Identify primary reasons other residents cite for leaving your state using surveys and studies, noting whether those same factors affect your household situation and satisfaction.
- Evaluate whether staying in your current state remains viable given migration trends that may impact housing values, tax bases, service quality, and economic opportunity over time.
Destination Research (45 minutes)
- Examine major migration corridors from your current state to identify where people with similar backgrounds and concerns successfully relocate, since these destinations often address the problems driving your own consideration of moving.
- Verify that popular destination states still offer the advantages that initially attracted migration, since rapid inbound growth often erodes affordability and quality of life that made states attractive in the first place.
- Research specific communities within destination states rather than relying on state-level statistics, since inbound hotspots within states may be expensive while other areas remain affordable.
Financial Analysis (30 minutes)
- Calculate total cost differences including housing, property taxes, income taxes, insurance, and cost of living rather than focusing on housing prices alone, since tax advantages can offset higher home prices or vice versa.
- Research job market strength in your field within target destination states, verifying that employment opportunities exist before relocating based solely on cost advantages.
- Consider timing carefully since early movers to popular destinations capture advantages that later arrivals miss as housing markets appreciate and competition intensifies.
Why Migration Rankings Differ Between Sources
Different migration rankings produce varying results because they measure fundamentally different aspects of population movement using distinct methodologies and data sources. Understanding why rankings disagree helps you interpret what each source actually reveals and which metrics matter most for your situation.
U.S. Census Bureau data provides the most comprehensive picture by tracking total net migration including both domestic state-to-state moves and international immigration, based on tax returns, driver’s licenses, and other administrative records. This official government data reveals actual population shifts but releases with significant lag times, often providing results one to two years after the migration occurred.
United Van Lines tracks its own customer moves to produce the National Movers Study, classifying states as high inbound when 55 percent or more of moves go into the state, high outbound when 55 percent or more leave, or balanced when the split is roughly even. This methodology captures relative migration direction and can identify emerging trends quickly since it tracks real-time moves. However, it only includes United Van Lines customers who tend to be homeowners making longer-distance moves, missing renters, young people, and those who move themselves or use other moving services.
U-Haul migration data comes from one-way truck rentals, providing another real-time indicator of where people move. U-Haul’s customer base skews more toward renters and DIY movers compared to United Van Lines’ focus on professional full-service moves, capturing different demographic segments. States showing high one-way truck arrivals indicate popular destinations for these mover types.
Consumer Affairs analysis examines search data and surveys of people looking to move, providing forward-looking indicators of migration intentions rather than completed moves. This methodology reveals where people want to go before they actually relocate, potentially predicting future migration flows. However, intentions don’t always translate into completed moves, particularly when financial barriers prevent desired relocations.
IRS tax return migration data tracks county-to-county moves based on address changes on tax returns, providing detailed geographic resolution and income brackets. This data reveals which income groups move where, showing for example that high earners disproportionately leave high-tax states for no-tax alternatives.
The variance between sources means you should consult multiple rankings to get a complete picture. Census data provides official totals, moving company data reveals real-time trends, search data indicates future intentions, and IRS data shows income dynamics. States consistently appearing across multiple rankings as high outbound or inbound show more reliable patterns than those ranking high in only one source.
How to Use Migration Rankings for Your Decision
The smartest approach to using migration rankings starts with understanding that they describe what other people are doing, not necessarily what you should do for your specific situation. High outbound migration from your current state doesn’t automatically mean you should leave, while high inbound migration to a destination doesn’t guarantee it will work for your family. Instead, use migration trends as one input among many in your decision-making process.
First, identify why other people leave your current state and whether those same factors affect you personally. If surveys show people leaving California cite housing costs as the primary driver and your family struggles with housing expenses, the migration trend validates your concerns and suggests they won’t improve soon. However, if you own a paid-off home and don’t face cost pressures, the broader trend may not apply to your circumstances.
Second, research where people with backgrounds similar to yours successfully relocate by examining migration corridors from your state to specific destinations. If you’re a tech professional in California, look at where other tech workers go and whether job markets in those destinations support your career. If you’re a retiree in New York, examine where other retirees relocate and whether those destinations offer the amenities and healthcare access you’ll need.
Third, verify that popular destination states still offer the advantages that initially attracted migrants, since rapid inbound growth often erodes affordability and quality of life. Idaho and Montana showed this pattern starkly with over 56 percent home price increases since 2020, transforming them from affordable destinations into expensive markets. Early movers captured advantages that later arrivals no longer enjoy.
Fourth, balance migration trends with other priorities including career opportunities, family proximity, healthcare access, education quality, and personal preferences that may differ from broader population movements. The “best” state for migration trends may not be best for your specific situation if it lacks jobs in your field, places you far from aging parents who need support, or doesn’t offer the urban amenities or rural character you prefer.
Finally, consider timing carefully since migration patterns create cycles in housing markets and economic conditions. Moving early in an inbound trend captures maximum advantages, while moving late in the cycle means competing with many others for housing and jobs while paying prices driven up by earlier migrants. Conversely, selling in an outbound state during peak outmigration may mean accepting lower home values while buying in a hot inbound market costs more than anticipated.
If you are interested, we also prepared articles for States Ranked by Safety in 2025, States Ranked by Housing Affordability 2025, Best States for Retirement Ranked 2025 and States Ranked by Quality of Life in 2025
FAQ
Which state has the most people leaving in 2025?
New York leads in total volume with 446,814 net domestic migration loss from 2020 to 2024, the largest absolute population decline from state-to-state moves. California follows with 530,886 net outbound domestic migration over the same period. When measuring by percentage, Alaska shows 57 percent outbound moves, the highest ratio of people leaving versus arriving.
Why are people leaving California in such large numbers?
Cost of living drives California departures, with housing expenses often double the national average and a median home price of $809,227. California carries the nation’s highest state income tax rate at 12.3 percent, while slow job growth and 441 businesses relocating headquarters since 2018 create economic concerns. The California to Texas corridor alone accounts for over 102,000 annual moves, the largest interstate migration route in America.
What are the top states people are moving to in 2025?
Texas gained over 85,000 net domestic migrants, followed by North Carolina with 82,000, South Carolina with 68,000, and Florida with 64,000, though Florida’s growth moderated significantly from previous years. Tennessee gained 325,319 net residents from 2020 to 2024. These states offer lower housing costs, no state income tax in several cases, growing job markets, and warmer climates than expensive northern alternatives.
Why are people leaving Illinois?
High taxes emerge as the number one reason Illinoisans leave when surveys include taxes as a response option. Polling from NPR Illinois and the University of Illinois found 61 percent had thought about moving out of state primarily due to tax burden. A 2016 poll showed 47 percent wanted to leave, with taxes as the single biggest reason. Illinois lost 139,399 net domestic migrants from 2020 to 2024, with over 56,000 leaving in just the past year.
Are migration patterns changing from previous years?
Overall mobility rates decreased with Americans moving less frequently than before, though the direction of migration remains consistent. Florida’s net domestic migration fell 49 percent from 2022 to 2023 as rising costs and insurance challenges eroded its affordability advantage. North Carolina and Tennessee rose in popularity, with Tennessee overtaking Florida for third rank among most popular destinations. California outranked Illinois as the top outbound state for the first time in 10 years, indicating acceleration of California’s exodus.
How does outbound migration affect states long-term?
Sustained outbound migration reduces tax bases as working-age residents leave, forcing tax increases or service cuts that can drive more departures in a downward spiral. Housing markets soften in outbound states, affecting homeowner wealth and property tax revenue. School enrollments decline, businesses lose customers, and political representation decreases as census counts drop. States face economic challenges when they lose young, educated workers while retaining older residents who require more services. Corporate departures accelerate as businesses follow workers or seek friendlier environments.
Should I leave my state if it shows high outbound migration?
High outbound migration indicates your state faces structural challenges with cost, taxes, opportunity, or quality of life that likely won’t improve quickly. However, your personal decision should consider whether those same factors affect your situation, whether destination states offer real advantages for your career and family, and whether the disruption of moving outweighs staying. Migration trends validate concerns and suggest trajectory, but don’t automatically determine your best choice given your specific circumstances.
References
- Wikipedia List of U.S. States and Territories by Net Migration 2020-2024.
- United Van Lines 48th Annual National Movers Study 2024.
- Consumer Affairs Migration Trends: Where Are People Moving To in 2025.
- Three Movers Moving Trends by State: Where Americans Are Going 2025.
- World Population Review States People Are Leaving 2025.
- North American Community Hub Why Some US States Are Losing Population Rapidly 2025.
- PODS Why Are People Leaving California and Where Are They Going.
- Illinois Policy Institute International Migrants Boost Illinois Population But Don’t Expect Them to Stay.
